Food and peak oil

For those that haven't thought about it yet, there's an uncomforably close relationship between food and oil, as highlighted in a recent report from the Bristol Partnership's Peak Oil Report:

"For every calorie of food energy delivered, 7-10 calories of fossil fuels are used to produce it. According to a July 2008 government report, the transportation of food alone accounts for a third of the 20.6 million tonnes of oil used in the UK food chain each year"

The report quoted was the Cabinet Office's 'Food Matters'.

Oil in 1minute 33 seconds

Patrick Blower's livedraw cartoon on oil in the Guardian a couple of days ago is as black in its humour as the colour of the oil he draws. Watch and pass it on.

Strangely, there are still a lot of folk who don't seem to understand the oil thing. I was speaking to a group of 70 or so designers in London last week and took a straw poll on awareness of peak oil and its likely impact on the way we make, move and use things. Less than 15% had heard of it - and these are the people designing the things that we'll be using next. Better send them Patrick Blower's video.

Peak Oil - when will we ever learn

There was an interesting post in today's Guardian about the US military's take on peak oil. They stress that their thoughts are not policy, but what the hell, their job is national security, so maybe it's worth a look.

"The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India."

Peak Oil - raising the challenge bar

George Monbiot, writing in today's Guardian, points out the risks and relative importance of peak oil, on one hand, pushing investment towards ever-dirtier sources of oil - shales and coal, for instance, balanced against the soothing sounds of 'it's OK - we've found more oil'.

In terms of finding more, it's the scale that counts, as Monbiot says:

"In terms of total global supply, the trade body's [Oil & Gas UK] projections  don't make much difference...[they] suggest that the possible extra reserves are split roughly equally. This would mean an extra 2.9bn barrels of oil, which equates to around one month of global consumption"

Once again, the question for us to ask is 'so what?' or 'now what'. If you didn't write a letter following my last post, write one now.

2010 Peak Oil report

Following on from the excellent, thought provoking 2009 report from the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security,  ITPOES have produced a useful update - The Oil Crunch: a wake-up call for the UK economy.

http://peakoiltaskforce.net/download-the-report/2010-peak-oil-report/

The report states that:

Having assessed the systemic changes caused by the global economic recession, coupled with the projected growth from non-OECD countries, ITPOES predicts Peak Oil will occur within the next decade, potentially by 2015 at less than 95 million barrels per day... The UK will be particularly badly hit by these factors with a tightening of supply leading to greater oil import dependency, rising and volatile prices, inflationary pressures and the risk of disruption to the transport system.

It's recommendations include:

• A package of policies are required to deal with the economic, financial and social impact of potential high oil prices

• Policies and fiscal measures to support and incentivise a shift from the traditional car to more fuel- and carbon-efficient modes of transport to be established

• The nation’s power generation and transmission distribution infrastructure must be changed to adapt to new demand patterns, price spikes and supply interruption

• Measures must be taken to protect the public, particularly the most disadvantaged, from the impact of rising fuel costs on food and other consumer goods prices.

Here's a Do:

Write  short letter to your local council, asking for clarification of their position on Peak Oil and its impact on community. Share the results with others.