Rearrange the deckchairs

With a decision at Copenhagen now pushed back into 2010 at the earliest, and the chances of pegging global warming to an average of two degrees, and climate scientists increasingly convinced that our current path will take us to four degrees or beyond, I thought it would be worth referring back to the predictions that Mark Lynas made a couple of years back in his award-winning book Six Degrees. Here's a summary from Mark's website

3C-4C

Glacier and snow-melt in the world’s mountain chains depletes freshwater flows to downstream cities and agricultural land. Most affected are California, Peru, Pakistan and China. Global food production is under threat as key breadbaskets in Europe, Asia and the United States suffer drought, and heatwaves outstrip the tolerance of crops.

The Gulf Stream current declines significantly. Cooling in Europe is unlikely due to global warming, but oceanic changes alter weather patterns and lead to higher than average sea level rise in the eastern US and UK.

4C-5C

Another tipping point sees massive amounts of methane – a potent greenhouse gas – released by melting Siberian permafrost, further boosting global warming. Much human habitation in southern Europe, north Africa, the Middle East and other sub-tropical areas is rendered unviable due to excessive heat and drought. The focus of civilisation moves towards the poles, where temperatures remain cool enough for crops, and rainfall – albeit with severe floods – persists. All sea ice is gone from both poles; mountain glaciers are gone from the Andes, Alps and Rockies.

It's time to stop faffing around and ensure that our politicians, civic leaders, business owners and policy makers understand what the 3-4 degree and 4-5 degree forecasts do to their busines models. Or maybe they'd prefer to rearrange the deckchairs, which will be floating on the tide anyway

Building Ecotopia

There's a good event to get involved before the UK climate march on December 4th in London, run by activist and imaginist James Parr. Click through here for more information.

Cutting Carbon Wales

A day spent in S Wales with 40 climate change specialists from business, government and third sector, looking at a range of topics:

Dr Andy Fraser - Policy and community context,  Andy Middleton - Understanding the urgency for change

Usha Ladwa-Thomas - Behaviour change tools, Cathryn Al Kanaan - Global to local experience

Aled Owen - Community Councillor Experience

Andy Fraser - Head of Climate Change Policy, WAG

www.wales.gov.uk/climatechange

Developing policy on mitigation and adaptation for whole of Welsh Assembly Government, working closely with the communication & engagement teams - helping communities meet the climate change agenda is the most important thing that we need to be doing in Wales. Key messages:

The scientific case for action to tackle climate change is clear. IPCC's have said that that evidence for anthropogenic climate warming is 'unequivocal'. Neither Andy or others he's been working with in the US are optimistic about immediate prospects for change at Copenhagen. We know that we will be affected - opportunities for greater tourism for instance will be greatly outweighed by the negatives.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme produced, in June 2009, three different emissions scenarios on how the climate will change in 20, 30 40 years ahead. WAG have been working with UKCIP to understand what their forecast changes mean for Wales - broadly speaking this means warmer, drier summers in which the short periods of extreme heat that we've experienced in the past will become standard - meaning that we'll need to think about that impact on health, water, food, transport and much more. Milder wetter winters will bring floods and storm damage.

In the week beginning 23rd November, the team are running half day sessions on interpreting UKCIP's information for different sectors.

WAG's 'One Wales' multi-party strategy agrees to "carbon reductions-equivalent reductions of 3% a year by 2011 in areas of devolved competence'. The baseline data for reductions will be an average of emissions in 2006-2010. The emissions targets covers all areas except large business and energy generation (which are included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). Older approaches which use a 1990 baseline are a) inaccurate, b) out of date. One of the problems with using an '06-'10 baseline is that WAG won't have the figures until 2012 because of reporting times.

Through the Kyoto targets and the Climate Change Act, there is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 against 1990 - Wales' targets are slightly above this.

Andrew expected that Copenhagen, although probably lacking the big changes that might have been hoped for, are still likely to produce the framework between Annex 1 and Annex 2 countries that can lead to serious agreements over the following 12 months. It's quite likely that the UK's CO2 targets wil then get ratcheted up.

WAG have just completed their second consultation on the Climate Change Strategy - Programme of Action, and the team are busy working with the key people in other areas to work out what needs to happen to deliver the 3% reductions, and are working with the Climate Change Commission to shape the climate change strategy.

Main principles that focus the Programme of Action:

WAG has made a big commitment to do what it can do, and there's a recognition that the government cannot do this alone - all other sectors have a role to play, and without that, there is no chance of hitting the targets. The science [from Tyndall Centre's Kevin Andersen and others] is showing that reductions rates need to be at 6%, not 3.

Leadership by example and building climate change into Assembly Government will be essential, and improving energy efficiency across all sectors will be key to this.

Identifying where Wales' natural resources, land management patterns and economy can contribute to reducing emissions in Wales. In terms of energy generation through renewables, there are huge opportunities across the country.

Socially just measures are key too as the impacts of climate change will affect those least able to adapt the most, both in our own country and in developing countries.

23 measures are set out in the Programme of Action, in the following sectors: transport, business, residential, waste, public sector, agriculture and land management, behaviour change and adaptation.

The ability to measure and manage carbon emissions is key, and through approaches including the UK-wide Carbon Reduction Commitment and the Wales-based Glas Tir land management framework, changes will trickle in from a wide range of sources.

In terms of behaviour change, the engagement process is probably the most critical area of all as without a political mandate, the politicians are not able to lead with the actions that science is demanding. 3% is a political targets, and there is a clause that says "we will look for opportunities to go beyond 3% to emissions reductions of 6% and 9% a year). A report from the Tyndall Centre will be published at the end of November talking about what bigger steps look like in terms of policy.

Community Action for Climate Change

Events in Newport, Llangollen and Aberystwyth

Three pathfinder projects in Cardiff, Carmarthen & Wrexham

Age of Stupid

Funding for 'cautious community' groups

Pilot training module for Communities First

A Peak at the Future

It's taken a while for Peak Oil to reach the awareness of the folk responsible for developing government policy and delivering strategic goals, and I'm not convinced that it's there yet. Only 18 months ago, major spatial planning documents in Wales paid it scarce attention, and assumed a 'business as usual' approach.

In an article on Monday 9 November, the Guardian revealed that predictions on the future of global oil supply had been distorted due to US pressure. Hard to believe, but there you go.

My question for today: knowing that a) a 60% rise in energy prices within the next seven years was likely anyway, b) it seems likely that we're around Peak Oil now, when would it be prudent to start serious planning for alternatives?

This the UK Govt's representative on peak oil in response to the Guardian's disclosure of the news:

"John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations  confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.

He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.

When shall we start planning for this? Answers on a postcard please.

Simple works good

Water water everywhere? If only. Much of the world lives hundreds of miles from plentiful, accessible water, which brings its own legion of health and food problems.

Whilst charities such as Water Aid, who TYF have supported for years, do outstanding work in many countries, there's also a place for simple, practical solutions such as the Water Cone, which popped up on my radar thanks to the observant folk at Quiet Riot.

A couple of decades back, I worked as an exploration geologist in a gold mine in the Great Sandy Desert, arguably (as people who live in hot places do) the hottest place on the planet. The guy I replaced had died of dehydration in the desert, running out of shelter, support and water. Learning how to look after ourselves and eke water from a black bin bag of grass left in the sun was training that could separate life from death.

Recognition of the need to find more practical solutions to the world's emerging water crises has prompted a reinvogorated movement that includes the folk behind the Water Cone and EcoSapiens Associate Michael Pawlyn's work on salt water greenhouses and algal biofuel.