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A Peak at the Future

It's taken a while for Peak Oil to reach the awareness of the folk responsible for developing government policy and delivering strategic goals, and I'm not convinced that it's there yet. Only 18 months ago, major spatial planning documents in Wales paid it scarce attention, and assumed a 'business as usual' approach.

In an article on Monday 9 November, the Guardian revealed that predictions on the future of global oil supply had been distorted due to US pressure. Hard to believe, but there you go.

My question for today: knowing that a) a 60% rise in energy prices within the next seven years was likely anyway, b) it seems likely that we're around Peak Oil now, when would it be prudent to start serious planning for alternatives?

This the UK Govt's representative on peak oil in response to the Guardian's disclosure of the news:

"John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations  confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.

He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.

When shall we start planning for this? Answers on a postcard please.


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