Setting realistic targets

Earlier this week, Aubrey Meyer wrote compellingly to The Guardian, pointing out the importance of setting appropriate time scales as well as levels of CO2 reduction:

Nicholas Stern proposes a global cut in emissions of 50% by 2050, with an 80% cut in the emissions of the developed countries by then. While the principle of the contraction and convergence to world per-capita average of emissions is welcome, proposing it at a rate that is too slow is not. The coupled climate modelling in the fourth and latest IPCC assessment shows that a global cut in emissions of nearly 100% is needed by around 2060 to offset the accelerated rate at which emissions are now accumulating in the atmosphere. We need emissions contraction and convergence globally, but at roughly twice the rate he argues if we are to avoid greenhouse gas concentrations causing "a major climate disaster".
Aubrey Meyer
Global Commons Institute

Risk and response

Understanding risk

It's interesting to reflect on risk and response. There’s probaiblity of accidents a ratio of1 in 43,000,000 rail journeys, 1: 125,000,000 air trips, and 1: 2, 360,000 fair grounds (that’s a lot of rides). The grids that represent these would be squares with 6557x 6557, 11,180 x 11180, and 1536x 1536 respectively. Each grid would be green, with just one red square representing the risk of a negative outcome. On these grids, it would be hard to spot the red.

For the risk of dangerous climate change on the other hand, the grid would be a10 x 10, with 99 of the squares red, and just one green one. This single green, represents our current 1% chance of avoiding dangerous climate change

Managing risk

It’s interesting to consider what we do, and have done, to manage risks to these levels. Airplanes are rigorously inspected on a regular basis by highly trained engineers, flown by experienced pilots and crew who have trained how to recognise, avoid and respond to danger. We manage the risk of fire in the house and at work by installing fire alarms which are regularly tested, running fire drills, liaising with the rescue services, training children at school and specifying fabrics that don’t emit dangerous fumes. We do this for a risk of one in tens of millions.

For a ninety-nine to one chance of creating dangerous climate change, government has no plan and little real preparation. It’s to take action on this; we’ve developed two programmes / processes to accelerate change:

Making Carbon History – experiential learning exercise to help organisations start to understand impact and benefit of the 9% annual reduction in CO2 emissions that’s needed to avoid the worst impact of climate change

Securing our Sustainability – an illustrative strategy designed to help public sector organisations understand what a transformational strategy would actually look like

Triple Top Line design

Most of our design is still based on the idea that someone else, sometime else, is going to pick up the pieces of the products that we've had made. It's time to move away from triple bottom line accounting - the classic model of CSR - to triple top line design, where the same three ingredients are combined at the design phase. By designing products and services  that bring together the best of:

• 'people' (psychology, sociology and spirit),
• 'planet' (biomimicry and systems thinking)
• 'profit' (effective project management, use of technology etc)

We can create a design alchemy that's fit for the future. Some good things are happening already- Cradle to Cradle for example, and there's much more to do.

It's time for change.

Securing our Sustainability

We're about to go live with Securing our Sustainability - an illustrative strategy to help public sector organisations in Wales and beyond create plans that are capable of delivering the actual rate of change that's needed. My introduction is pasted below, and the rest of the document will be on line in a few days.

Lead in: Andy Middleton – TYF EcoSapiens

The largest changes in our move towards creating a sustainable future for Wales will be based on infrastructure, engineering, transport and the built environment as much as they are concerned with behaviour change by individual citizens.

Before we dismiss as out of hand consideration of whether or not change on this scale is possible, it’s important we go through three fundamental steps of enquiry to give ourselves a solid base of considered thought on which to base our decisions. Firstly, consider from a philosophical stand point whether it is appropriate to have a plan that could give a 30 fold improvement to the likelihood of avoiding the worst impacts of dangerous climate change. Secondly, prepare ourselves and our colleagues psychologically for the journey that such transformation will require; progress through such a changing landscape will require courage, self knowledge, flexibility and perception, the likes of which have not been asked for in our lifetimes. The final step before we embark on this process of considered change is to look carefully at what has already been achieved in Wales and beyond that provides evidence that radical, profitable and life affirming progress is possible.

A broad consensus is emerging which points to 2030 as the horizon deadline by which we must have achieved energy, food and carbon security; this date is around 5000 days away from today. Research into the nature of large scale engineering or infrastructure projects suggests at least 15%-20% total project time is needed to produce the detail of plan and coordination necessary to deliver a successful outcome. Applying the same logic to planning for sustainable change suggests that we would have a complete, budgeted blueprint in place at the end of 2012.

We recognise the difficulties associated with expecting politicians to call for actions which are not popular with their electorate. In part, this document attempts to light a path and clear some of the obstacles to allow our political and civic leaders to talk openly and passionately about a scale of change that they can support through policy, strategy and personal leadership.

The date point on our time-line will move certainly and steadily forwards; our challenge is to ensure that actions and commitment keep pace with what is needed to provide security for ourselves, our organisations and community into the future.

Sustainable Wales

It's been an interesting few days, working with a variety of inspiring and committed people to create an illustrative strategy that organisations can use to create an integrated approach to developing their way forwards.

I spent an interesting few hours with senior mangers from a north Wales local authority the other day, as part of their planning to get elected members on board for the need for a 9% annual reduction in CO2 emissions. They're one of the best councils in the country and are up for the idea of exploring what bigger changes might look like, scary though the implications may be.

Reports out this week demanded cuts in CO2 (UK Met Office), meat consumption (Food Climate Research Network) and pesticide use (Soil Association) point in a direction that suggests we really must get around to sorting out some contingency plans and alternatives to the way we're doing things.

it's time to conider what we want our legacy to be.