Cutting Carbon Wales

A day spent in S Wales with 40 climate change specialists from business, government and third sector, looking at a range of topics:

Dr Andy Fraser - Policy and community context,  Andy Middleton - Understanding the urgency for change

Usha Ladwa-Thomas - Behaviour change tools, Cathryn Al Kanaan - Global to local experience

Aled Owen - Community Councillor Experience

Andy Fraser - Head of Climate Change Policy, WAG

www.wales.gov.uk/climatechange

Developing policy on mitigation and adaptation for whole of Welsh Assembly Government, working closely with the communication & engagement teams - helping communities meet the climate change agenda is the most important thing that we need to be doing in Wales. Key messages:

The scientific case for action to tackle climate change is clear. IPCC's have said that that evidence for anthropogenic climate warming is 'unequivocal'. Neither Andy or others he's been working with in the US are optimistic about immediate prospects for change at Copenhagen. We know that we will be affected - opportunities for greater tourism for instance will be greatly outweighed by the negatives.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme produced, in June 2009, three different emissions scenarios on how the climate will change in 20, 30 40 years ahead. WAG have been working with UKCIP to understand what their forecast changes mean for Wales - broadly speaking this means warmer, drier summers in which the short periods of extreme heat that we've experienced in the past will become standard - meaning that we'll need to think about that impact on health, water, food, transport and much more. Milder wetter winters will bring floods and storm damage.

In the week beginning 23rd November, the team are running half day sessions on interpreting UKCIP's information for different sectors.

WAG's 'One Wales' multi-party strategy agrees to "carbon reductions-equivalent reductions of 3% a year by 2011 in areas of devolved competence'. The baseline data for reductions will be an average of emissions in 2006-2010. The emissions targets covers all areas except large business and energy generation (which are included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). Older approaches which use a 1990 baseline are a) inaccurate, b) out of date. One of the problems with using an '06-'10 baseline is that WAG won't have the figures until 2012 because of reporting times.

Through the Kyoto targets and the Climate Change Act, there is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 against 1990 - Wales' targets are slightly above this.

Andrew expected that Copenhagen, although probably lacking the big changes that might have been hoped for, are still likely to produce the framework between Annex 1 and Annex 2 countries that can lead to serious agreements over the following 12 months. It's quite likely that the UK's CO2 targets wil then get ratcheted up.

WAG have just completed their second consultation on the Climate Change Strategy - Programme of Action, and the team are busy working with the key people in other areas to work out what needs to happen to deliver the 3% reductions, and are working with the Climate Change Commission to shape the climate change strategy.

Main principles that focus the Programme of Action:

WAG has made a big commitment to do what it can do, and there's a recognition that the government cannot do this alone - all other sectors have a role to play, and without that, there is no chance of hitting the targets. The science [from Tyndall Centre's Kevin Andersen and others] is showing that reductions rates need to be at 6%, not 3.

Leadership by example and building climate change into Assembly Government will be essential, and improving energy efficiency across all sectors will be key to this.

Identifying where Wales' natural resources, land management patterns and economy can contribute to reducing emissions in Wales. In terms of energy generation through renewables, there are huge opportunities across the country.

Socially just measures are key too as the impacts of climate change will affect those least able to adapt the most, both in our own country and in developing countries.

23 measures are set out in the Programme of Action, in the following sectors: transport, business, residential, waste, public sector, agriculture and land management, behaviour change and adaptation.

The ability to measure and manage carbon emissions is key, and through approaches including the UK-wide Carbon Reduction Commitment and the Wales-based Glas Tir land management framework, changes will trickle in from a wide range of sources.

In terms of behaviour change, the engagement process is probably the most critical area of all as without a political mandate, the politicians are not able to lead with the actions that science is demanding. 3% is a political targets, and there is a clause that says "we will look for opportunities to go beyond 3% to emissions reductions of 6% and 9% a year). A report from the Tyndall Centre will be published at the end of November talking about what bigger steps look like in terms of policy.

Community Action for Climate Change

Events in Newport, Llangollen and Aberystwyth

Three pathfinder projects in Cardiff, Carmarthen & Wrexham

Age of Stupid

Funding for 'cautious community' groups

Pilot training module for Communities First

Biomimicry 2010

There's a feeling in my bones that 2010 is going to see a huge increase in activity in the use of biomimicry for problem solving, design and systems thinking. Three or four concurrent conversations are lining up major events in London, Wales and elsewhere.

If you're interested in this work and are not already in touch with me or other EcoSapiens team members, then drop me a line.

Many hands make light work.

Stand up and be counted

It's a shame how many people whine about their MPs. Whilst there may be many that have abused their privilege on expenses, the majority do what they do to make a difference. Here's what my MP, Stephen Crabb had to say about 10:10

Thanks for your email regarding the 10:10 climate change campaign debate in the House of Commons yesterday.

I am pleased to inform you that I did vote in favour of the motion as I believe that that the imperative for acting on climate change is more pressing than ever and we must set real goals if we are to make significant reductions in carbon emissions. You may be aware that I have also, personally, signed up to the pledge. See: http://www.stephencrabb.com/press/pressdetails.aspx?ID=255 for further information.

Eat your way down

Seeing Nick Stern's name attached to a 'go vegetarian' headline caught my eye on the Guardian web site today, not so much for the content, which covers a story that we've known about for years, but beacause it was written by an economist. His forecast of the £3,000,000,000 A YEAR cost to the UK of supporting developing countries' fight against the impact of climate change was one good reason for shifting our diet to one that's low (or zero) in meat and high in vegetables. Human rights and environmental justice are stronger measures of course, but without £££ attached to them, don't get the same headlines. Highlights from the Guardian are:

"Farmed ruminant animals, including cattle and sheep, are thought to be responsible for up to a quarter of "man-made" methane emissions worldwide.

Stern, whose 2006 Stern Review warned that countries needed to spend 1% of their GDP to stop greenhouse gases rising to dangerous levels, said a successful deal at the climate change conference in Copenhagen in December would massively increase the cost of producing meat.

People's concerns about climate change would lead to meat eating becoming unacceptable, he predicted.

"I think it's important that people think about what they are doing and that includes what they are eating," he told the Times. "I am 61 now and attitudes towards drinking and driving have changed radically since I was a student. People change their notion of what is responsible. They will increasingly ask about the carbon content of their food."

Stern, a former chief economist at the World Bank and now IG Patel Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, also warned that helping developing countries to cope with the adverse effects of global warming would cost British taxpayers about £3bn a year by 2015"

Still on the numbers: Government not up to 1010

Yesterday afternoon, despite much last minute emailing and phone lobbying, the UK government decided, by a majority of 79, not to support a LibDeb to mandate all public sector organisations to reduce their carbon emissions by 10% in 2010. This is their response, blogged by Cllr Alexis Rowell of Belsize ward in Camden in London:

"This House welcomes the 10:10 campaign as a motivator of public action to cut carbon emissions through individual and collective behaviour change, recognises the value of such campaigns to build public support for action by governments to agree an ambitious effective and fair deal at Copenhagen, recognises the significant effort made by individuals and organisations to cut their emissions through the 10:10 campaign, supports the world first Climate Change Act introduced by this government and the system of carbon budgets that enables Britain to set itself on a low carbon pathway, notes that carbon budgets ensure active policies by Whitehall departments and the public sector that deliver long term sustained emissions reductions not just in 2010 but through to 2022 and beyond, supports the efforts of local councils to move towards local carbon budgets by signing up to the 10:10 campaign, welcomes the allocation of up to £20m for central government departments to enable them to reduce further and faster carbon emissions from their operations, estate and transport and further welcomes the cross-cutting Public Value Programme review of the low carbon potential of the public sector, which will focus on how the sector can achieve transformational financial savings through value for money carbon reductions"

There comes a time when some behaviour, such as smoking in public places, selling cigarettes to children and excessive alcohol consumption, needs legislation for effect. Getting public sector organisations to reduce their CO2 rapidly is one that requires both carrot and stick.

Little Do: if your council and/or employer hasn't yet signed up to 1010, write a letter today asking them to commit.