Rearrange the deckchairs

With a decision at Copenhagen now pushed back into 2010 at the earliest, and the chances of pegging global warming to an average of two degrees, and climate scientists increasingly convinced that our current path will take us to four degrees or beyond, I thought it would be worth referring back to the predictions that Mark Lynas made a couple of years back in his award-winning book Six Degrees. Here's a summary from Mark's website

3C-4C

Glacier and snow-melt in the world’s mountain chains depletes freshwater flows to downstream cities and agricultural land. Most affected are California, Peru, Pakistan and China. Global food production is under threat as key breadbaskets in Europe, Asia and the United States suffer drought, and heatwaves outstrip the tolerance of crops.

The Gulf Stream current declines significantly. Cooling in Europe is unlikely due to global warming, but oceanic changes alter weather patterns and lead to higher than average sea level rise in the eastern US and UK.

4C-5C

Another tipping point sees massive amounts of methane – a potent greenhouse gas – released by melting Siberian permafrost, further boosting global warming. Much human habitation in southern Europe, north Africa, the Middle East and other sub-tropical areas is rendered unviable due to excessive heat and drought. The focus of civilisation moves towards the poles, where temperatures remain cool enough for crops, and rainfall – albeit with severe floods – persists. All sea ice is gone from both poles; mountain glaciers are gone from the Andes, Alps and Rockies.

It's time to stop faffing around and ensure that our politicians, civic leaders, business owners and policy makers understand what the 3-4 degree and 4-5 degree forecasts do to their busines models. Or maybe they'd prefer to rearrange the deckchairs, which will be floating on the tide anyway

Cutting Carbon Wales

A day spent in S Wales with 40 climate change specialists from business, government and third sector, looking at a range of topics:

Dr Andy Fraser - Policy and community context,  Andy Middleton - Understanding the urgency for change

Usha Ladwa-Thomas - Behaviour change tools, Cathryn Al Kanaan - Global to local experience

Aled Owen - Community Councillor Experience

Andy Fraser - Head of Climate Change Policy, WAG

www.wales.gov.uk/climatechange

Developing policy on mitigation and adaptation for whole of Welsh Assembly Government, working closely with the communication & engagement teams - helping communities meet the climate change agenda is the most important thing that we need to be doing in Wales. Key messages:

The scientific case for action to tackle climate change is clear. IPCC's have said that that evidence for anthropogenic climate warming is 'unequivocal'. Neither Andy or others he's been working with in the US are optimistic about immediate prospects for change at Copenhagen. We know that we will be affected - opportunities for greater tourism for instance will be greatly outweighed by the negatives.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme produced, in June 2009, three different emissions scenarios on how the climate will change in 20, 30 40 years ahead. WAG have been working with UKCIP to understand what their forecast changes mean for Wales - broadly speaking this means warmer, drier summers in which the short periods of extreme heat that we've experienced in the past will become standard - meaning that we'll need to think about that impact on health, water, food, transport and much more. Milder wetter winters will bring floods and storm damage.

In the week beginning 23rd November, the team are running half day sessions on interpreting UKCIP's information for different sectors.

WAG's 'One Wales' multi-party strategy agrees to "carbon reductions-equivalent reductions of 3% a year by 2011 in areas of devolved competence'. The baseline data for reductions will be an average of emissions in 2006-2010. The emissions targets covers all areas except large business and energy generation (which are included in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). Older approaches which use a 1990 baseline are a) inaccurate, b) out of date. One of the problems with using an '06-'10 baseline is that WAG won't have the figures until 2012 because of reporting times.

Through the Kyoto targets and the Climate Change Act, there is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 against 1990 - Wales' targets are slightly above this.

Andrew expected that Copenhagen, although probably lacking the big changes that might have been hoped for, are still likely to produce the framework between Annex 1 and Annex 2 countries that can lead to serious agreements over the following 12 months. It's quite likely that the UK's CO2 targets wil then get ratcheted up.

WAG have just completed their second consultation on the Climate Change Strategy - Programme of Action, and the team are busy working with the key people in other areas to work out what needs to happen to deliver the 3% reductions, and are working with the Climate Change Commission to shape the climate change strategy.

Main principles that focus the Programme of Action:

WAG has made a big commitment to do what it can do, and there's a recognition that the government cannot do this alone - all other sectors have a role to play, and without that, there is no chance of hitting the targets. The science [from Tyndall Centre's Kevin Andersen and others] is showing that reductions rates need to be at 6%, not 3.

Leadership by example and building climate change into Assembly Government will be essential, and improving energy efficiency across all sectors will be key to this.

Identifying where Wales' natural resources, land management patterns and economy can contribute to reducing emissions in Wales. In terms of energy generation through renewables, there are huge opportunities across the country.

Socially just measures are key too as the impacts of climate change will affect those least able to adapt the most, both in our own country and in developing countries.

23 measures are set out in the Programme of Action, in the following sectors: transport, business, residential, waste, public sector, agriculture and land management, behaviour change and adaptation.

The ability to measure and manage carbon emissions is key, and through approaches including the UK-wide Carbon Reduction Commitment and the Wales-based Glas Tir land management framework, changes will trickle in from a wide range of sources.

In terms of behaviour change, the engagement process is probably the most critical area of all as without a political mandate, the politicians are not able to lead with the actions that science is demanding. 3% is a political targets, and there is a clause that says "we will look for opportunities to go beyond 3% to emissions reductions of 6% and 9% a year). A report from the Tyndall Centre will be published at the end of November talking about what bigger steps look like in terms of policy.

Community Action for Climate Change

Events in Newport, Llangollen and Aberystwyth

Three pathfinder projects in Cardiff, Carmarthen & Wrexham

Age of Stupid

Funding for 'cautious community' groups

Pilot training module for Communities First

First 2009 Do Lectures now online

With the final edit finished, the first four of 2009's Do Lectures are now online at www.dolectures.com - click through to watch:

Geoff McFetridge - graphics guru talking of creativity, belief, purpose and the art of doodle.

Duke Stump - insights from The North Star Manifesto, and of moving from objects to relationships

Paul Deegan - one of the best teachers I've ever seen, talking of cleaning up Everest and journeys that Do.

Uffe Elbaek - co-founder of the amazing Kaos Pilots education, talking of learning through change

Do feedback

The first talks from the 2009 Do Lectures go online next week, and we're pretty excited about the prospect of aiming for over one million downloads in the coming year.

In the meantime, in between finances, following up and planning for 2010, David pulled together some of the feedback from this year, which is enough to make anyone feel good:

It was like a double shot of fresh air for my brain.T hank you.

It was the most inspiring and abundant event I have ever attended.

Thanks again for the super fun times. I have been trying really hard to describe everything to my wife. What a great week.

A cross between the Burning Man, the Ted talksand Where the Wild Things Are

Truly excellent.

Great job and great lectures -- I think you all have a very special thing going out there in West Wales.

There¹s a reason that there is not a 5 star Michelin restaurant that seats over 50 folks.  Small is beautiful.  Oh yeah...LOVED not getting emails...

When I say I loved the Do Lectures, I really mean I fell in love with them.

The location, the hosting, the food, attendees and of course the speakers all blended together to form a magical mix.

It’s the most important event of its kind..

You gave me the greatest experience and I will remember it forever.

It certainly for me was the most inspiring conference event thing, (which it clearly isn’t) that I’ve taken part in.

It was like putting a hell of a lot of interesting, clever, funny, sparky people in a blender. In a field.

 A place of storytelling. A place of inspiration.

 It has a Genius of Place.

 I jumped in a river with some of the smartest, kindest, friendliest people on the planet..

 Sotheby’s could learn a lot how to auction axes from these people

 The meals taught us that food is not a thing but a relationship.  Damn that food was good...

 I laughed.  I laughed a lot.  Fuel for the soul...

 Revolutions can start in that pub..

 A melting pot of people and ideas. Just an amazing event.

A bonfire with soul

Join the Do Lectures

The Do Lectures are around 6 weeks away. The speakers are preparing their talks, and ticket holders readying for inspiration. We're offering a crowd-sourcing membership of the Do Lectures this year to raise money for the talks and help reach 1 million people next year. Here's why in words penned by Do founder and co-pilot David Hieatt

Why The Do Lectures matter?

And why becoming a member matters too?

We live in interesting times.

And we live in important times.

Most of the important business models have yet to be written.

Most of the ‘why didn’t I think of that’ answers for climate change have yet to be dreamt of.

Most of the important scientific or technological breakthroughs are just doodles on a notepad.

As well as interesting times, these are exciting times.

Necessity will make a good taskmaster. Crisis will make a good editor. Having finite resources will make us infinitely more creative with how we use them going forward.

Yup, interesting times.

And if consumers will have to change how they consume, and if business will have to change how they do business, then so will Government have to change how they govern.

Our system of having a four-year government for 100-year problems means tough decisions are rarely made. A manifesto designed to win votes isn’t the same as a manifesto designed to do what needs to be done for the safety of future generations.

And how we have treated this planet in the past will have to be different to how we treat it in the future. A tree helps produce oxygen, rain and sucks in carbon dioxide. Yet we only put a value to it once we cut it down. At the very same time as when it stops producing rain, when it stops producing oxygen and stops sucking in carbon dioxide.

Indeed these are interesting times.

We have to fill in a 3-page form to start an account with Fed Ex. Yet a badly run bank has to only fill in a 2-page form to get billions from the Government to shore up their bank.

Interesting times, indeed.

But rather than being a time to be down or despondent, this is the time for great change. And yes, there is much that needs changing. There is much to do.

But reassuringly the human mind is more creative than any computer will ever be. The answers will come from the brightest, stubborn-nest, and oddest of people.

And the thing that brings this oddball bunch together is that they are all stubborn dreamers. Brilliant enough to have the idea. Stubborn enough to make it happen.

Buckminster Fuller described the importance of vision best when he said, “ There is nothing in a caterpillar that tells you it’s going to be a butterfly”. But as well as the vision, you need that grit determination to make your idea live.

That is what The Do Lectures is here to Do. It is a platform for the Doers of the world to tell us their stories. So they can inspire the rest of us to go do something amazing too. In simple farming terms, it is just manure for the field. It is here to help grow ideas.

The Do Lectures is not a business, but it has to pay its way in the world. Appropriately a set of talks with sustainability at its heart needs to be, well, yes, sustainable.

To that end, we sell tickets for the event so the rest of the world can see them the talks for free. Our aim this year is for a million people to see the talks. To me, that is a lot of ‘mind manure’ being spread around the world.

So does the Do Lectures matter? I believe they do. And maybe they matter more in these interesting times than any other time.

I believe that ‘mind manure’ sure needs spreading around.

So my last question today is would you become a member of The Do Lectures?

Memberships costs £50. You will receive 4 newsletters a year. Have the inside track on choosing speakers and be able to make suggestions too. Have first refusal on future tickets. Receive a Do Lectures 2009 T-shirt that has a chance of coming with a golden ticket to this years Do lectures.

But the biggest thing of all is just to feel part of it. To feel like you are doing something to make this happen. To become a doer too.

So if this is crowd funding in its truest form, we need the crowd to put their hands up and say ‘I’m in.’ ‘I think The Do Lectures matter. Here’s my £50.’

A simple email to Claire@thedolectures.co.uk will be enough to start this off