A Peak at the Future

It's taken a while for Peak Oil to reach the awareness of the folk responsible for developing government policy and delivering strategic goals, and I'm not convinced that it's there yet. Only 18 months ago, major spatial planning documents in Wales paid it scarce attention, and assumed a 'business as usual' approach.

In an article on Monday 9 November, the Guardian revealed that predictions on the future of global oil supply had been distorted due to US pressure. Hard to believe, but there you go.

My question for today: knowing that a) a 60% rise in energy prices within the next seven years was likely anyway, b) it seems likely that we're around Peak Oil now, when would it be prudent to start serious planning for alternatives?

This the UK Govt's representative on peak oil in response to the Guardian's disclosure of the news:

"John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations  confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.

He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.

When shall we start planning for this? Answers on a postcard please.

Lining up for action

There's been even more of a spring in my step (worrying for some, I know) since the Do Lectures, with many conversations about converging possibilities around food, design, education and more.

In true Do style, the participants at Herefordshire Environment Partnership that joined for a meeting yesterday agreed unanimously to set out a plan and project to reduce the county's CO2 emissions by 20% in 12 momths; it was a big ask and they responded magnificently.

More Do recommendations will be coming soon from the fine line up of speakers who were with us at the end of the talks. From my left, Gabriel Branby, Geoff McFetridge, Gregor McLennan, Paul Deegan, Duke Stump, Ben Hamersley, Adam Lowry, Alistair Humphreys

Do: with pictures

Pictures are appearing all over the web, flickr and other sites, capturing the essence of last week's Do Lectures in close up. One particularly good example is this one from George Gilbert. It was a huge bonus to have so many talented professional and hobby photographers capturing the images of the talks that will be posted soon.

Biomimicry in design

Greengaged at the Design Council brings together designers, thinkers, doers and makers for a week of talks and interactive events. I'll be speaking there with colleagues Michael Pawlyn from Exploration Architecture, Julian Vincent, Melissa Sterry and others for a day on 'Biomimicry in Design'. Email the link at the start of the article to register for this free event.

In November, Melissa, Johnn Grant and I will be speaking at Salford University on biomimicry and eco-logical design for business and social change.

Next week, at the Do Lectures, Michael Pawlyn will be joined by Tim Birkhead (the Wisdom of Birds) and 20 other top speakers for four days of theb best talks anywhere. Half a dozen tickets are left...

The Richest Room on Earth

A space deep beneath the ground, surrounded by metre-thick concrete walls. Airtight vault doors with electronic passwords protect access, with further heavy steel doors inside. Protective clothing is essential for access to the Richest Room on Earth.

The room is 50 square metres at minus 20c - a space that contains the seeds of 25,000 plant species. It’s humbling to share space with the richest biodiversity on the planet. Kew have a billion seeds in their care and have systems in place to protect them for a couple of thousand years. Maybe then, civilisation will know how to look after them in a restored natural environment.

Fellow Doer Giles Hutchings had invited me to spend the day at Wakehurst in Sussex, meeting the custodians of the Millennium Seed Bank, the impressive, knowledgeable and passionate botanists and scientists on a mission to collect and preserve for the future, seed samples from 25% of the plants on the planet. It’s a job of importance beyond words, with a ‘business as usual’ path that’s pointing towards the loss of half of life on earth by the end of the century. Careless.

Waking people to take action and reverse at least some biodiversity loss is going to take some doing. Doing like running Do Lectures next year at Kew Gardens, Eden and the Garden of Wales, and engaging hundreds of thousands, and a million or two more, on a journey of change a . Drop a line if you want to play and get involved. There’s a lot to Do.